Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Adjusted Career Points/Game

With Sidney Crosby collecting his 1000th point recently, there was lots of chatter about how few games he needed and his career points per game. Many pointed out that his 1.32 points/game over his career is the 5th best all-time behind only Gretzky, Lemieux, Bossy and Orr. This is a rather impressive feat considering the era in which Crosby has played is one of the lowest scoring ever. 
On social media, folks were wondering about how the leaders would look if Adjusted Points was used to even out the different eras. Adjusted Points is calculated at hockey-reference.com and equalizes for Goals/game, roster size and length of league schedule. For example, it calculates Gordie Howe's 49 goals in 1952/53 as an Adjusted Goal total of 65 when compared to all eras. 
Using Adjusted Points, Crosby does indeed get a bump due to the era he plays in, his Points/game climbs to 1.52 while Lemieux drops to 1.68 and Gretzky drops a bit further to 1.62. Crosby certainly is in the discussion with the big boys. The problem with Adjusted Points appears when you go way back to the dawn of the NHL. Below are the Adjusted Career Points/Game leaders across all eras. I went all the way to 1.02 Career Adjusted Pts/GP, so it's a fairly long list.
(Blue are pre-WWII players, Yellow are Modern Players)
Player GP-AdjPts-AdjPts/GP
Lalonde 99 376 3.80
Denneny 328 847 2.58
Morenz 550 1229 2.24
Nighbor 349 761 2.18
Irvin 94 203 2.16
Dye 271 567 2.09
FBoucher 557 1155 2.07 
Primeau 310 612 1.97 
GHay 238 437 1.84 
BiCook 474 872 1.84
Bailey 313 568 1.82
Joliat 655 1183 1.81
NStewart 650 1170 1.80
Conacher 459 792 1.73
Lemieux 915 1540 1.68 
Fredrickson 161 268 1.67
Gretzky  1487 2475 1.66 
CCooper 286 467 1.63
Noble 510 804 1.58
Apps 423 664 1.57
Crosby 756 1146 1.52 
Broadbent 303 461 1.52
HSmith 715 1074 1.50
Cowley 549 807 1.47
Weiland 509 749 1.47
BJackson 633 879 1.39
GBoucher 449 622 1.39
Forsberg 708 977 1.38
Malkin 692 940 1.36
Clancy 592 797 1.35
Orr 657 878 1.34 
Shore 550 721 1.31
RGreen 195 256 1.31
Ovechkin 895 1165 1.30 
DBentley 566 728 1.29 
PThompson 582 753 1.29
TBlake 577 740 1.28
Siebert 592 753 1.27
MRichard 978 1229 1.26
GHowe 1767 2190 1.24
Gottselig 589 731 1.24
Lindros 760 942 1.24
Jagr 1684 2074 1.23
Beliveau 1125 1385 1.23
Lach 664 816 1.23
SHowe 698 849 1.22
Sakic 1378 1679 1.22
Bossy 752  906 1.21
Kane 715 859 1.20 
Stamkos 586 695 1.19
Esposito 1282  1508 1.18
Bure 702 823 1.17
BoHull 1063 1239 1.17
Backstrom 708 829 1.17
Palffy 684 784 1.15 
MBentley 646  734 1.14
Tavares 565 631 1.12
Dionne 1348 1493  1.11
Kovalchuk 816 904 1.11
Geoffrion 883 982 1.11
BrHull 1269 1390 1.10
Lamb 443 486 1.10
Schmidt 776 845 1.09
Yzerman 1514 1650 1.09 
Kariya 989 1078 1.09
Selanne 1451 1565 1.08
Thornton 1425 1533 1.08 
Datsyuk 953 1026 1.08
Clapper 833 890 1.07
Getzlaf 838 898 1.07
Mogilny 990 1054 1.07
Benn 562 603 1.07
Mikita 1394 1478 1.06
Giroux 631 670 1.06
Kennedy 696 728 1.05
Sundin 1346 1410 1.05 
Lindsay 1068 1109 1.04
Bathgate 1069 1113 1.04 
Oates 1337 1396 1.04
Lafontaine  865 902 1.04
Spezza 889 927 1.04
Stastny 977 1001 1.03
Lafleur 1126 1161 1.03
Zetterberg 975 1002 1.03
Toews 693 713 1.03
Turgeon 1294 1315 1.02
Well, there you have it. Edouard 'Newsy' Lalonde is the top Adjusted Point producer of all-time. As you can see, the early era guys are inflated mainly due to the shortness of the NHL seasons back then. The top 14 guys are from the 1930's or earlier, also a few relatively obscure names make the all-time list. Longtime Montreal Maroon Hooley Smith, Hamilton Tiger/New York American Red Green and Blackhawk Johnny Gottselig show high on this list. A few modern surprises like Ziggy Palffy and Jason Spezza also sneak onto the list. Can all these guys really be considered among the greatest producers of all-time?
Perhaps it would be beneficial to look at simply the raw totals of Adjusted Points, forgetting about games played:
Gretzky
Howe
Jagr
Yzerman
Sakic
Selanne
Thornton
Lemieux
Esposito
Dionne
Mikita 
This list is sounding a bit more like the top scorers ever. 
Another way to approach the Adjusted Points/GP could be to narrow it down to players with at least 500 games played, doing this the leaders are;
Morenz
FBoucher
Joliat
NStewart
Lemieux
Gretzky
Noble
Crosby
HSmith
Weiland
BJackson
Forsberg
Malkin
Gretzky and Lemieux are the only guys that are in the top ten of both the last two lists. This just illustrates how hard it is to compare eras. Maybe we should just leave it at that, #99 and #66 are the two greatest point producers in NHL history and Crosby is climbing fast. Who could have an issue with that?

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